Comparative Projection of Aged Population by Iran’s Provinces Until 2026
The aim of this study is the estimation and projection of population aging indicators in the Iran’s provinces until 2025. The method is secondary analysis of census data. The projection were made over a 15-year period, from 2011 to 2026 by using the package program “SPECTRUM”. The projection show that all aging indices of population will increase in all of provinces. These increases are due to three factors: continuing low fertility, particularly in the larger provinces, population aging of the baby boom generations, increase in longevity and life expectancy particularly among the elder people. According to results, annual growth rate of population aged 60 and over for the periods 2011-2016, 2016-2021 and 2021- 2026 is expected to rise respectively 3, 2, 4, 3, 4, 2 percent. Estimates suggest that these provinces including: Alborz (27, 2), Tehran (27, 1), Mazandaran (25, 3), Gilan (25, 3), Isfahan (19, 2), Fars (17, 93), Semnan (17, 8), Iran (17), Qazvin (12, 8) and Markazi (10, 6) will experienced the highest percent aged population among provinces in the country until 2026.The provinces will be faced with a very high size of the population in retirement ages that require corrective actions and policies regarding matters of retirement. The burden of the population aging index shows that the provinces of Tehran, Gilan, Mazandaran, Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, Kermanshah, and Qom will suffer the greatest burden of the aging population. Considering provincial differences in levels, patterns and trends of aging just coincidence differences in index levels and at a time (multiple patterns and trends), it is suggested pension policy flexible, dynamic, location-based, time-based pro- active. Regionalization of the terms and conditions of retirement is proposed regarding to ageing demographic patterns and other economic and social conditions of each region and the specific situation of the pension fund in each province.
Keywords: aging indices, age structure, population projection, demographic pressure coefficient, pension funds.